Sherry Chandler » The race card
The race card
Andrew Kohut gets it wrong in the NYTimes—or why the pollers failed:
But another possible explanation cannot be ignored — the longstanding pattern of pre-election polls overstating support for black candidates among white voters, particularly white voters who are poor.
In exploring this factor, it is useful to look closely at the nature of the constituencies for the two candidates in New Hampshire, which were divided along socio-economic lines.
Mrs. Clinton beat Mr. Obama by 12 points (47 percent to 35 percent) among those with family incomes below $50,000. By contrast, Mr. Obama beat Mrs. Clinton by five points (40 percent to 35 percent) among those earning more than $50,000.
There was an education gap, too. College graduates voted for Mr. Obama 39 percent to 34 percent; Mrs. Clinton won among those who had never attended college, 43 percent to 35 percent.
…
Poorer, less well-educated white people refuse surveys more often than affluent, better-educated whites. Polls generally adjust their samples for this tendency. But here’s the problem: these whites who do not respond to surveys tend to have more unfavorable views of blacks than respondents who do the interviews.
Yessirreebob, Andy, us pore dumb whites is racist as all get-out. That’s why we voted for Hillary instead of, say, the populist white man in the race, namely John Edwards. Edwards, the Southerner, nudge, nudge, wink, wink. Edwards, the man who’s pro-Union, who vows to give us all affordable health care.
But wait, we’re sexist, too. What do your numbers do about that?
No possibility, of course, that the NH voters weren’t quite ready to crown Obama or to set up a charisma contest between him and Huckabee. No chance anyone decided that Hillary is smart, dedicated, and tough.
Has to be something ugly, like racism.
I heard a pollster — was it Kohut? Or maybe it was a psychiatrist — taking this line on All Things Considered last night and it makes me mad. It’s like, somehow, we have to vote for Obama because he’s black and it strikes me as reverse just one more form of racism.
- Jesse Jackson in Hazard
- The voters, not the press, pick the winner
- Why I stay angry…
- Mother’s Day Report Card
- I have eaten squirrel brains and I am not demented
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4 Comments
1. Helen Losse replies at 10th January 2008, 4:58 pm :
Hi Sherry, I love your post until I get to the last clause: “it strikes me as reverse racism.” There are many reasons to support candidates other than Obama. And there is no reason women shouldn’t fight sexism by supporting Hillary rather than fighting racism by supporting Obama. Both racism and sexism need to be abolished and aren’t the sole reasons for all the sins in the world.
Reverse racism, however, is a myth; it just doesn’t exist.
2. Rebecca Clayton replies at 10th January 2008, 7:53 pm :
I used to make mathematical models to predict biological behaviors. When my models didn’t work, it never occurred to me to vilify my subject. “The bugs have lied to me! These bacteria are racists!” If I had, do you suppose I would be president of the Pew Research Center by now?
“…these whites who do not respond to surveys tend to have more unfavorable views of blacks than respondents who do the interviews.” If they won’t talk to pollsters, how does he know what they think? Just goes to show you that the intelligentsia identify the “Other” in Yankeeland too.
3. sherry replies at 10th January 2008, 7:54 pm :
Lazy writing on my part, Helen. Thanks.
4. sherry replies at 12th January 2008, 6:38 am :
Oh nice, Rebecca. This comment ties our conversational threads together beautifully and I didn’t see it. Too busy seeing red I guess.
Here’s another refutation of Kohut from John Judis He has numbers that show both Hillary and Obama gaining votes among those with high school education:
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